What a Difference a Quarter Makes

On January 1, 2006, when the first quarter of the calendar year began, the federal debt stood at $8.170 trillion. Today, the last day of the first quarter, the federal debt stands at $8.365 trillion—an increase of $195 billion in just three months.

According to the latest baseline estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, federal spending over the next five fiscal years (2007-2011) will total $14.9 trillion. The CBO further estimates that the aggregate deficits for these same five years will total $1.07 trillion.

But fear not fellow conservatives: the House Committee on the Budget has a “plan” to tackle this problem.

According to the committee’s Fact Sheet, the FY 2007 House Budget Resolution will allow for $2.732 trillion in new budget authority in which “discretionary” spending will increase 3.6% and so-called mandatory spending will increase 3.8%.

The budget committee calls the 3.6% increase in “discretionary” spending a “near freeze.” Hmmm. When the nation’s gross domestic product increases at an annual rate of 3.6%, do economists call this a “near freeze”? Current estimates for our 2006 GDP are 3.4%—a rate that President Bush said “looks very strong.”

The budget committee is proudly predicting that during reconciliation this year, the budget will include “$6.8 billion in savings in mandatory spending over five years.” Now that’s something to stand up cheer—$6.8 billion in “savings” over five years! Is one to conclude that the “$39.5 billion in savings over five years” in last year’s approved reconciliation package was too much for the budget committee to swallow again this year?

So how much of a reduction is $6.8 billion? A whopping 0.04% off the projected $14.9 trillion that the CBO estimates Congress will spend during the next five years.

That, my friends, is what we call “fiscal discipline.”

—Bill Lauderback.